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Informatics Research Seminar: External Validation Study of SMART Vascular Event Prediction Model Using UK Primary Care Data Between 2000-2017

March 18 @ 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm EDT

Speaker: Laura H. Gunn, PhD

Presented from UNC-Charlotte

Broadcast Link: Recording not available


Among those with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), future vascular event risk varies widely. Ability to predict individual risks enables more refined approaches to risk management. This validation study assesses performance of the SMART prediction model in predicting 10-year vascular event risks. Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink consists of adults registered with UK National Health Service primary care providers diagnosed with coronary, cerebrovascular, peripheral, and/or aortic ASCVD. Exposure variables include demographics, medical history, and clinical measurements, while the outcome is first post cohort-entry occurrence of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. The calibration and discrimination achieved by the SMART model was not dissimilar to performance at internal validation. It slightly under-predicted risk among lower risk groups, but clinical utility was apparent across potential treatment thresholds. Results remained consistent in sensitivity analyses. The SMART model has utility in the context of routine UK primary care-based secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.


Dr. Laura H. Gunn received her PhD in Statistics and Decision Sciences from Duke University, during which time she also held a research training fellowship in Biostatistics with the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences.  Laura is currently Associate Professor of Public Health Sciences and Director of Health Analytics at University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNCC), as well as Honorary Research Fellow at Imperial College London’s (ICL) School of Public Health (SPH) within the Faculty of Medicine.  Prior to UNCC, Laura was Associate Professor of Public Health in Biostatistics, Department Chair of Health Sciences, and founding Program Director of Public Health at Stetson University, where she led the development of the undergraduate minor and major in Public Health, as well as co-developed undergraduate and graduate Data/Applied Analytics programs and received the University’s Community Partnership of the Year Award for establishing partnerships with Florida Hospital and Florida Department of Health.  Additional prior positions include Associate Director of the Global eHealth Unit within ICL’s SPH.  During this time, she also served as Lead Biostatistician for Research Design Service London at ICL.  Laura was Biostatistics Director and Interim Associate Dean of Georgia Southern University’s Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health (JPHCOPH), where she was among the founding faculty to develop masters and doctoral programs primarily in Biostatistics and Epidemiology within JPHCOPH and served on the core leadership team for Council on Education for Public Health (CEPH) accreditation.  She received the JPHCOPH Faculty Awards of Excellence for Teaching & Mentoring, as well as for Service.  Laura served a term on the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Medicare Evidence Development and Coverage Advisory Committee; and, a sample of additional service roles includes: Treasurer for the American Statistical Association Georgia Chapter; Chair and Program Committee Chair of the Biopharmaceutical Applied Statistics Symposium; and reviewer for various statistics and health journals, as well as US and UK nationally-funded grants.  Her research accounts for 45 peer-reviewed journal articles, book chapters and technical reports, as well as serving as a PI or co-I on funded external grants and contracts totaling over $6.5 million, including National Institutes of Health (US) and National Institute for Health Research (UK) grants.  A sample of her publications includes such journals as PLoS ONE, American Journal of GastroenterologyAnnals of Family Medicine, British Journal of Dermatology, PediatricsBiostatistics, Biometrics, International Journal of Integrated Care, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; and, she has over 150 invited and contributed regional, national, and international presentations.


March 18
4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
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